Preparing for a pandemic
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Professor Vicki Bier (right) with Susan King, an attorney and consultant on the project (View larger image)
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 nlike many other scientists, Professor Vicki Bier hopes local, state and federal government agencies won’t ever need to apply the results of her research. With funding from the Wisconsin Department of Health and Family Services, Bier is studying how society might function during a pandemic, a new disease that could incapacitate millions of people.
“At the peak of a pandemic, we might have 30- to 40-percent absenteeism—people who are sick or taking care of sick family members,” says Bier. “This could have a severe impact.”
Bier and her colleagues are examining three areas that lie beyond the scope of traditional public health or emergency management, but that would be important in a pandemic. Among those issues are managing childcare in the event of large-scale school closings and determining which businesses are critical to keep open—and what happens to employees whose workplaces close.
The Centers for Disease Control has guidelines for closing schools, but Bier and colleagues are concerned about what happens to childcare once the schools are closed. Children may be safer from infection in small, home daycares than
in large daycare facilities, but parents staying home with their children would only heighten absenteeism in the workplace. A neighbor could volunteer to watch local children, but may not be equipped to care for children with disabilities or special needs.
However, parents may not need to worry about daycare if their businesses are closed. Whether due to absenteeism or disease prevention, many branches of industry could shut down during a pandemic. Bier’s group is developing criteria for which businesses are necessary, both in terms of basic needs—for example, grocery stores, pharmacies, utilities and the like—and economic need.
“If the pandemic is so bad that the government feels it’s necessary to close some businesses to reduce the spread, which ones would have the least spillover effect?” asks Bier. “You don’t want to close manufacturing industry, for example, if it then drives the entire state economy into the ground.”
The group also is examining the needs of people with low-wage jobs in areas likely to be hard-hit by a pandemic. For example, workers in hotels, restaurants and entertainment venues suddenly may lose their income when their businesses close—but they still have bills to pay. The researchers are considering solutions ranging from emergency unemployment compensation to a moratorium on utility cutoffs.
Though Bier and colleagues are preparing for a worst-case scenario, they are hoping for the best. “This could have a severe enough effect that we ought to be planning for it ahead of time, rather than scrambling to figure out how we’re going to manage after the fact,” says Bier.
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