NE (NEEP) 574: Methods for Probabilistic Risk Analysis of Nuclear Power Plants

Nuclear Engineering and Engineering Physics

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NE (NEEP) 574 - Methods for Probabilistic Risk Analysis of Nuclear Power Plants

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NE 574: Methods for Probabilistic Risk Analysis of Nuclear Power Plants, Spring 2008 (Bier)

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Catalog Description

574 Methods for Probabilistic Risk Analysis of Nuclear Power Plants. (Crosslisted with Ind Engr 574.) II,Odd Yrs; 3cr. Methods for risk and reliability analysis of engineered systems, particularly as applied in the nuclear power industry. Fault trees and event trees, Bayesian data analysis, probabilistic risk management. Some familiarity with nuclear plant safety systems is helpful, but not required. P: Stat 311 or Math 431 or cons inst.

Course Prerequisite(s)

Stat 311 OR Math 431 or cons. inst.

Prerequisite knowledge and/or skills

Students must have a command of the principles of probability theory in order to understand and use tools required for probabilistic risk analysis.

Textbook(s) and/or other required material

Textbook:

None

References:

Fullwood and Hall, Probabilistic Risk Assessment in the Nuclear Power Industry: Fundamentals and Applications, Pergamon Press, 1988.

Dhillon and Singh, Engineering Reliability: New Techniques and Applications, Wiley, 1981.

Henley and Kumamoto, Reliability Engineering and Risk Assessment, Prentice-Hall, 1981.

Reason, Human Error, Cambridge University Press, 1990.

Course objectives

Course Objectives: It is the instructor's intention to:
introduce students to the methods actually used in industry for probabilistic risk analysis of nuclear power plants.
teach students fault tree analysis, including the treatment of common cause failures, maintenance unavailability and boundary conditions.
teach students the basics of event tree analysis.
teach students about how dependencies such as human error and external events are analyzed.
teach students the basics of Bayesian data analysis and uncertainty analysis (including the use of simulation).
familiarize students with post-(core meltdown) phenomena such as containment failure modes and off-site dispersion analysis.
demonstrate the effectiveness of probabilistic risk analysis for identifying cost-effective safety improvements.
expose students to a state-of-the-art software package for probabilistic risk analysis.

Course Outcomes: Students must be able to...
estimate system failure probability using fault tree analysis.
estimate accident frequency using event tree analysis.
understand effects of human error and external events on risk.
estimate component failure rates using Bayesian data analysis.
propagate uncertainties through some simple models.
summarize key concepts in their own words in weekly reports.

Topics covered

Introduction (1 lecture)
Review of Probability Theory (2 lectures)
Fault Tree Analysis (10 lectures)
Event Tree Analysis (4 lectures)
Human Reliability (1 lecture)
External Events (e.g., fires, floods, earthquakes) (2 lectures)
Data Analysis (4 lectures)
Uncertainty Analysis (3 lectures)
Containment Analysis (1 lecture)
Off-site Dispersion Analysis (1 lecture)
Risk Management (1 lecture)

Class/laboratory schedule

Class meets for two standard 75-minute lectures/week.

Contribution of course to meeting the professional component

This course contributes primarily to the students' knowledge of engineering topics, but does not provide design experience.

The following statement indicates which of the following considerations are included in this course: economic, environmental, ethical, political, societal, health and safety, manufacturability, sustainability.

NEEP 574 focuses on probabilistic methods for identifying weak components in a nuclear system, including the human component. Its underlying focus is health and safety, and it also provides insight into an important factor not listed above, namely the ergonomic implications of the nuclear system.

Relationship of course to undergraduate degree program objectives and outcomes

This course serves students in a variety of engineering majors. The information below describes how the course contributes to the college's educational objectives.

NEEP 574 is cross-listed with Industrial Engineering. It is a senior technical elective or graduate student breadth elective.

With repsect to the Nuclear Engineering degree program, NEEP 574 "fosters the development of effective oral and written communication skills" (see assessment tools below). As a result of taking this course, students see demonstrations of a modern engineering tool used in engineering practice (University-release of commercial software, RISKMAN) as well as develop engineering judgment required in open-ended design problems (again, see assessment tools below).

Assessment of student progress toward course objectives

A homework assignment to assess students' understanding of introductory probability theory, as covered in the review lectures and the recommended prerequisite courses.
Three homework assignments that test students' ability to develop and analyze fault tree models. One of these is an open-ended assignment that asks the students to develop a fault tree model to represent the auxiliary feedwater system at an actual nuclear power plant.
One open-ended homework assignment that tests students' ability to develop an event tree for the electrical power system at an actual nuclear power plant.
One homework assignment that tests students' ability to apply Bayesian data analysis methods to simple data sets.
One homework assignment that tests students' understanding of how to apply common methods of uncertainty analysis.
One 50-minute midterm that tests students' mastery of introductory probability theory and fault tree analysis.
One 50-minute midterm that tests students' mastery of event tree analysis and Bayesian statistics.
One two-hour final examination that reviews the major topics covered in the course, including fault tree analysis, event tree analysis and uncertainty analysis.
Weekly reports in which the students assess what they have learned in the past week, what topics are still unclear, and what they might expect to be tested on from that material.

Person(s) who prepared this description

Vicki M. Bier
Robert J. Witt

Copyright 2007 The Board of Regents of the University of Wisconsin System
Date last modified: 04-Aug-2007
Date created: 29-Oct-1999
Content by: neep@engr.wisc.edu
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