Bier, Vicki M.

"On the Concept of Perfect Aggregation in Bayesian Estimation," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 46:271-281, 1994.
"Statistical Methods for the Use of Accident Precursor Data in Estimating the Frequency of Rare Events," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 41:267-280, 1993.
"Preferences over Ambiguity as a Function of Personality and Message Framing" (with B.L. Connell), Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 7:169-182, 1994.
"A Bayesian Method for Analyzing Dependencies in Precursor Data" (with W. Yi), International Forecasting, 11:25-41, 1995.

Selected Awards, Honors and Societies

ANS Women's Achievement Award (1993)

Summary

Professor Bier is a risk analyst and decision analyst specializing in methods for the probabilistic risk analysis of nuclear power plants. She is also interested in societal decision-making regarding technological hazards in general.

Her current research interests include: the use of accident precursors in Bayesian estimation of rare event frequencies. An accident precursor can be loosely described as a "near miss" and includes those accidents that are greater than expected in normal day to day operations, but less than catastrophic. Bier has studied precursor data published by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission to discover how likely it is that an accident will happen, and what types of accidents are likely to occur. Her analysis, for example, shows that accidents caused by human error follow predictable patterns. This information can help plant designers prevent mistakes by making ergonomic changes. Other interests include the used of expert opinion in probabilistic risk analysis; and methods for effective risk communication, both to decision makers and to the general public.

More theoretical interests include determination of the optimal level of problem decomposition in estimation of accident frequencies, and the relationships between fuzzy set theory and probability theory.

Copyright 2007 The Board of Regents of the University of Wisconsin System
Date last modified: 06-Jul-2007
Content by: bier@ie.engr.wisc.edu
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